The last few days, the fervor over polling has reached a fever pitch, with enough contradictory internal and independent polls making headlines that average readers can essentially pick and choose the numbers that fit their perception. But, over the course of Saturday, a growing consensus emerged that – maybe, just maybe – she’s gonna win this.
On Friday, New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn wrote a piece on pollsters adjusting the results of their polls in response to the infamous mistakes made in 2016 and 2020, According to the piece, they do as much for the existential sake of their industry as they do for the sake of accuracy in and of itself.
Then, yesterday morning, the Harris campaign leaked that their internal numbers demonstrate a strong swing in her favor, particularly among very recently decided voters.
But, as if a bat signal lit up above the corn fields, trusted Des Moines-based pollster Ann Selzer dropped a poll showing a +3 margin for Kamala Harris in what until yesterday was assumed to be the solidly red state of Iowa.
The best days on Twitter happen when a person only industry nerds have heard of becomes a folk hero for the day.
So why such a shift in Iowa? The demographic breakdowns tell a few stories:
And also:
But okay! If polls – even from trustworthy sources – can’t alone be trusted, we gotta keep our eye on the ball. Or as Senator Schatz from Hawaii says:
Fortunately, the evidence suggests people did actually get offline and made some calls and knocked on some doors this weekend!
Meanwhile, Saturday evening, word got out that Kamala Harris made an unannounced visit to New York City.
Perhaps not so surprisingly, news quickly broke that she was set to appear on SNL, coincidentally the same night as megastar Chappell Roan, who famously said she was voting but not endorsing her earlier this year.
In the end, it was all fine and very sweet and almost sentimental, and something that like Hillary’s final appearance in 2016 will age like milk if she loses so please god oh god let her win.
If every positive signal is wrong and she really does lose, this vibing out will seem foolish and naive and will probably wreak even greater havoc on our collective psyche than 2016 did. At the same time, it means these will be the last few good days we have in a long, long time.
So make some calls, knock some doors, and see you all on the other side. 🫡
In rare non-political news this weekend: one side benefit of the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce relationship for this most casual of sports fans is learning that Jason Kelce is one of our greatest living Americans.
Kelce threw the slur right back in the troll’s face and all the online gays ruled in his favor.
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